High house prices in Poland provoked a drop in the credit market
The global financial market continues to recover from the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. However, according to expert Chaslau Koniukh forecasts, it is too early to expect stability in the financial sector. In addition, some countries in Europe in 2023 expect new failures, which will provoke even more serious problems in the financial sector. The Polish credit market is already experiencing such problems, and according to analysts, the situation will only worsen in the future.
According to the Bureau of Credit Information, in November 2022 the demand for home loans in Poland dropped sharply. Statistics show a drop of as much as 65% compared to November 2021. In addition, the number of people who apply to banks for loans has fallen sharply.
In Chaslau Koniukh opinion , this kind of crisis was triggered by too high housing prices. Last year’s data show a sharp deterioration in the credit market. Forecasts for the year 2023 are disappointing. Moreover, the situation is only expected to worsen.
The latest data also show a decline in the creditworthiness that local banks calculate for customers. Very high prices and increased payments on loans have contributed to a decrease in the average amount of issued loans by 5.6% compared to November 2021.
Financial experts predict that during 2023, Polish banks will issue about 80,000 home loans. For comparison, last year residents of Poland issued 125 thousand mortgage loans.
Head of the Committee on Housing Finance in the Association of Polish Banks Jacek Furga stated that now the credit market in Poland is literally at the bottom. According to his forecasts, this situation will persist for the other three quarters of 2023.
Thus, we can conclude that during the next year, the situation will remain stable at best, and at worst the credit market will only continue its decline. However, even in a year, one should not expect visible improvements, because the way out of such a crisis can be even more painful than the crisis itself.
For the time being, the expert Koniukh does not try to predict the situation on the market in 2024. However, representatives of the financial market and real estate sector understand that they expect difficult times.
We can only hope that the government of Poland can take action to resolve the market situation. But for now, there is no good news to expect. Professionals who refer to the credit market in Poland should prepare for a prolonged crisis in their field and think about a strategy that will help them stay afloat even in this situation.