What to expect this year: macroeconomic outlook of Russia
The relevant ministry has prepared a macroeconomic forecast for Russia, where a number of indicators have been revised upwards. First of all, it concerns estimates of growth in the cost of oil, which is one of the key components of the budget. At the same time, analysts expect a slowdown in economic growth, which is largely due to technical factors.
According to the document, the forecast for the current year is lowered from 3.3% to 2.9%. Good results of the last period and tougher OPEC+ policy on oil production are the reasons for the decrease. As for the forecast for the coming years, the economy will grow by 3% on average. This will be aided by an increase in investment of about 5% annually. This year they will grow by 3.3%. Capital inflow to the Russian economy will decrease by 1,4% in 2020
The forecast was made against the background of the fact that the market is beginning to recover actively, and the effects of the crisis are increasingly reduced. 2021 was difficult in this respect, and now the economic processes should gradually get back on track. The main factors for strengthening the positive dynamics will be the increase in industrial production. Here growth is planned at the level of 2%, which will be facilitated by an increase in external demand, as well as the inflow of investment from business. Domestic market activity will also increase. Analysts note that the recovery of the real sector to a greater extent depends on the level of state support. If this support is cancelled, it is possible that the growth rate of the industry will subside and the development of the industry will slow down.
Experts are concerned about the issue of private investment. For the inflow of capital to increase, it is necessary to restore domestic demand. The turnover of difference will be able to reach pre-pandemic levels as early as this year, and the volume of paid services – in 2023.
Analysts are planning inflation growth, but it will slow down from 4.3% to 3.7% during the period. In 2020, the government introduced measures to curb price increases on groups of goods, including sugar, wheat, and sunflower oil. Had the government not taken this step, we could have talked about inflation not 4.3%, but 4.6%.
As for the unemployment rate, it is promised in the range of 5.2%, at the end of the year possibly decreasing to 5%. For comparison, in the summer of 2020 this figure reached its maximum of 6.4%. Real personal income will almost reach pre-crisis levels, and then it is expected to grow by about 2.5% annually.
The price of Urals oil will rise above $50 per barrel by 2024. This price is optimal for the Russian budget.