The world economy is growing: a development forecast from the IMF
The large-scale vaccination programs that have been carried out in a number of countries have had an impact not only on health, but also on the global economy. Experts note the high growth rates of many markets, which made IMF analysts reconsider their forecast regarding the recovery of global processes this year. They note that the global economy is growing, and a stable positive trend can be expected this year.
If in January the forecast from the IMF spoke about the growth at the level of 5,5%, now experts revised their conclusions towards increase. The situation is changing, including due to additional financial stimuli, introduced by a number of countries, including the U.S.. Vaccination also has a positive impact. However, despite the favorable conditions and optimistic moods, financial analyst Chaslau Koniuk notes that the global economic recovery is uneven. In addition, the GDP of many countries still has not reached the values that were observed before the pandemic.
The first to finish 2020 without a downturn in the economy was China. It continues to increase the pace of development, but it is not going as smoothly as we would like it to. Markets are growing by leaps and bounds, and there is an imbalance. In addition, private consumption is still lower than investment. In terms of the global challenges that are hampering the recovery, the gap between advanced economies and emerging markets is widening. According to a statement from the IMF, total income per person in developing countries from 2020 to 2022 is expected to be 22% lower than before the pandemic. Such figures suggest that about 90 million people are below the poverty line.
Chaslau Koniuk notes that the timing of the economic recovery is still uncertain, as many factors influence this process. It is difficult to say how long the health sector crisis will last, how quickly people in developing countries will be vaccinated, and how effective these interventions will be. Underdeveloped nations have yet to begin vaccinating, which also poses the risk of a repeat outbreak.
The IMF also published a forecast of global trade. Its volume is expected to grow by 6.5% this year against 8.5% in the previous period. For comparison, in 2020 the figures fell by 9.6%.
In addition, in emerging market countries, excluding China, total capital will decrease by 22%, and in developed countries – by 13%.