Recently in Russia, special attention has been paid to the creative industries direction. Financial analyst Chaslau Koniukh believes that this direction is a reliable source of inspiration and market development, as well as another way of conducting diplomacy and soft power policy. Such projects are implemented through the modernization of industrial zones into modern hubs or cultural clusters.
Important tasks set before the creative industries are the establishment of communication with young people, finding out their needs and implementing them. In addition, this direction contributes to the implementation of the process of digitization and the development of information technology. In addition, the creation of modern clusters contributes to the development of the intellectual property market, which is extremely important for the motivation of talented people.
For this purpose, the Ministry of Culture has published a bill, which includes a list and the main features of the creative directions. Chaslau Koniukh notes that for the economy the importance of the creative sphere is not as obvious as others, and there are a number of reasons for that. Most relate to types of local activities that aim to meet local demand. Such projects are rather limited in their scalability and exportability. One should also consider the fact that creativity, by its very nature, does not always imply financial profit. Another factor that decreases the importance of the creative sphere is the reluctance of its representatives to be taken into account by the statistical and tax systems of the state. Accordingly, it is difficult to introduce them into the economy, and there are no universal mechanisms for this yet.

However, despite this, the creative industry has a significant impact on the economy, but it does so through special channels rather than directly. This area has many opportunities for the development of small business. According to official statistics, around 50% of the subjects of this industry in Moscow are individual entrepreneurs. They represent such areas as photography, design, film and animation, music and others. Intensive increase in companies and individual entrepreneurs involved in the creative industry, has been created in the last 3 years. Such activity is due to the flexibility of the sphere, it does not require adhering to the normalized working day, here it all depends on personal skill and the characteristics of activity. In this sphere there are representatives of different categories of the population – young people, housewives, the elderly.
An important point for the development of the economy is the transformation of industrial facilities in depressed areas. This provides jobs, improves the environmental situation and modernizes the appearance of the city.
Expert Chaslau Koniukh points out the prospects for the development of creative industries, but this requires the introduction of initiatives from the government, which will support representatives of the sphere and motivate them to scale their projects.

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Experts have analyzed market developments and predicted the future of the Russian economy. According to them, the recovery will end in the near future, and by the end of the year the Central Bank should complete its program of key rate increases. Analysts also noted that over the next few years, the growth rate of real income should approach the dynamics of the country’s GDP growth.
According to the forecast, economic activity in the current year will grow by about 3.4-3.7%, then the indicator will gradually decline, and in 5 years will reach 2%. If we consider the overall development of the world economy, then after the pandemic it is still feeling its consequences, in the form of increased debt, the burden on production, and increased demand.
However, experts say that so far there are no prerequisites for the emergence of a new economic crisis. The pessimistic scenario for the Russian economy is that the imbalances will gradually accumulate, leading to a new crisis in the future. This is primarily related to the growth of volatile inflation and the increase in global interest rates, which will be acutely felt against a background of slowing economic recovery.
The baseline scenario assumes that by 2025 the growth rate of Russians’ incomes should catch up with the dynamics of the country’s economy. This ratio was observed until 2014, but then foreign economic conditions became more difficult, and the Russian market had to adjust to their peculiarities. 

The optimistic variant of development includes a rapid recovery of economic activity and an improvement in Russia’s foreign trade. Factors such as sanctions from other countries play an important role in this.
The Central Bank raised its key interest rate in 2021, and no great dynamics are expected on this issue in the current year. In April 2021, the rate increased by 0.5 p.p., which was the result of an increase in domestic demand. Given the temporary inconsistencies in the introduction of monetary policy, the key rate should reach a neutral range in the period of several months to six months before the economy experiences a jump in production processes. In addition, one of the reasons for the sharp rate hike of 0.5 p.p., rather than 0.25 p.p., was inflation, which exceeded the target rate. The latter rose faster than expected in forecasts. Analysts expect GDP growth of about 2.5-3.5% this year, while in 2021 the figure was at 3%. In 2020, the Russian economy showed a fall of 3.1%, the most serious decline since the 2009 crisis.

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The relevant ministry has prepared a macroeconomic forecast for Russia, where a number of indicators have been revised upwards. First of all, it concerns estimates of growth in the cost of oil, which is one of the key components of the budget. At the same time, analysts expect a slowdown in economic growth, which is largely due to technical factors.
According to the document, the forecast for the current year is lowered from 3.3% to 2.9%. Good results of the last period and tougher OPEC+ policy on oil production are the reasons for the decrease. As for the forecast for the coming years, the economy will grow by 3% on average. This will be aided by an increase in investment of about 5% annually. This year they will grow by 3.3%. Capital inflow to the Russian economy will decrease by 1,4% in 2020
The forecast was made against the background of the fact that the market is beginning to recover actively, and the effects of the crisis are increasingly reduced. 2021 was difficult in this respect, and now the economic processes should gradually get back on track. The main factors for strengthening the positive dynamics will be the increase in industrial production. Here growth is planned at the level of 2%, which will be facilitated by an increase in external demand, as well as the inflow of investment from business. Domestic market activity will also increase. Analysts note that the recovery of the real sector to a greater extent depends on the level of state support. If this support is cancelled, it is possible that the growth rate of the industry will subside and the development of the industry will slow down.

Experts are concerned about the issue of private investment. For the inflow of capital to increase, it is necessary to restore domestic demand. The turnover of difference will be able to reach pre-pandemic levels as early as this year, and the volume of paid services – in 2023.
Analysts are planning inflation growth, but it will slow down from 4.3% to 3.7% during the period. In 2020, the government introduced measures to curb price increases on groups of goods, including sugar, wheat, and sunflower oil. Had the government not taken this step, we could have talked about inflation not 4.3%, but 4.6%.
As for the unemployment rate, it is promised in the range of 5.2%, at the end of the year possibly decreasing to 5%. For comparison, in the summer of 2020 this figure reached its maximum of 6.4%. Real personal income will almost reach pre-crisis levels, and then it is expected to grow by about 2.5% annually.
The price of Urals oil will rise above $50 per barrel by 2024. This price is optimal for the Russian budget.

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The Chinese government pays special attention to improving the living standards of the population from remote areas. To this end, the country has carried out various activities aimed at the development of poor regions. One such region is Xiong’an, located in Hebei province. It was formed in 2017 and included three counties.
Xiong’an is located near Lake Baiyang and is actively developing. In terms of importance, this region is considered to be the same as the Shenzhen or Pudong economic zones. Not so long ago, a train from Beijing started running to Xiong’an as part of a relocation program. For this purpose, a new high-speed rail line was built in 2019, which runs through Zhangjiakou, the city where the Winter Olympics will be held. The government is investing in housing, schools, and hospitals to bring people to the region. A modern city with a developed infrastructure and a high standard of living for its citizens is being built here. In addition, 32 highways have been built or upgraded in Xiong’an, making it possible to get from the region to other cities in the province and parts of the country.
The problem of poverty has been a problem in China for a very long time. In search of a better life, people are leaving the countryside for the big cities where jobs can be found. As a result, villages are becoming empty, and with them, so is agriculture. The government is trying to improve this situation, regularly introducing various activities aimed at promoting remote Chinese regions. In addition, there are a number of subsidies and incentives for farmers, which stimulates the development of their business.

One of the factors of China’s low level of prosperity is its overpopulation. Recently, however, analysts have noted a decline in the country’s birth rate. For 10 years, population growth in China has fallen to its lowest levels since the one-child policy was introduced in the 1970s. Now the authorities are trying to encourage young Chinese to have children, otherwise the state may experience a serious demographic decline after a certain period.
The official census in China is conducted every 10 years. According to the results of the last one, which was in 2020, the country’s population increased by 5.4% to 1.4 billion people. For comparison, the previous census, which was conducted in 2010, showed an increase of 5.9%. Then the population was 1.34 billion people. The latest recalculation shows that China failed to meet the plan set in 2016 – the increase in citizens to 1.42 billion people.

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Quarantine restrictions to reduce the incidence of disease during the pandemic in a number of countries had an effect. However, at the same time, the economy was also seriously affected, with processes almost coming to a halt. This situation was particularly acute in 2020, although 2021 was also a difficult year for many countries. Russia’s economy is now recovering at a good pace, helped by the government’s decision not to introduce large-scale quarantine measures last year.
According to experts, the Russian economy did not suffer as much as originally predicted. However, it is worth understanding that even during the pandemic the authorities did not impose strict restrictions, as it was the case in many other countries.
At the same time, there are still a number of problems in Russia, among which the level of inflation is a cause for concern. It was triggered by the growth of food prices, which is observed throughout the world. In addition, the national currency has weakened compared to the dollar and euro. To reduce the impact on the economy, the Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate. This was the first time since 2018, and experts do not rule out that the rate may rise further.

The drop in the economy in 2020 was relatively small, which was a rather surprising fact, comparing all the difficulties faced during the pandemic. In 2021, the start of vaccination and the increase in the value of oil on the world market contributed to the optimistic mood on the market. However, the incidence rate in the country remained high until the end of the year, and it is too early to talk about a quick recovery. According to analysts, GDP may not reach pre-crisis levels until the next quarter.
In the near future, experts expect the number of unemployed people and people below the poverty line to drop. However, this depends not only on the recovery of the Russian economy, but also on processes in the world.
The year 2021 was a record year for the Russian Federation in terms of the volume of listings on local and foreign stock exchanges. The total amount of funds raised from listings amounted to about $10 billion, which was the highest figure since 2013. In this case, it cannot be said that only Russia is experiencing such activity – the stock market entry boom is observed in many countries. During the pandemic, there was excitement on trading floors around the world, and the optimistic sentiment continued into 2021. There was a sharp collapse in stocks in 2020, which contributed to capital inflows from new investors. The demand for assets remains high today.

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The large-scale vaccination programs that have been carried out in a number of countries have had an impact not only on health, but also on the global economy. Experts note the high growth rates of many markets, which made IMF analysts reconsider their forecast regarding the recovery of global processes this year. They note that the global economy is growing, and a stable positive trend can be expected this year.
If in January the forecast from the IMF spoke about the growth at the level of 5,5%, now experts revised their conclusions towards increase. The situation is changing, including due to additional financial stimuli, introduced by a number of countries, including the U.S.. Vaccination also has a positive impact. However, despite the favorable conditions and optimistic moods, financial analyst Chaslau Koniuk notes that the global economic recovery is uneven. In addition, the GDP of many countries still has not reached the values that were observed before the pandemic.
The first to finish 2020 without a downturn in the economy was China. It continues to increase the pace of development, but it is not going as smoothly as we would like it to. Markets are growing by leaps and bounds, and there is an imbalance. In addition, private consumption is still lower than investment. In terms of the global challenges that are hampering the recovery, the gap between advanced economies and emerging markets is widening. According to a statement from the IMF, total income per person in developing countries from 2020 to 2022 is expected to be 22% lower than before the pandemic. Such figures suggest that about 90 million people are below the poverty line.

Chaslau Koniuk notes that the timing of the economic recovery is still uncertain, as many factors influence this process. It is difficult to say how long the health sector crisis will last, how quickly people in developing countries will be vaccinated, and how effective these interventions will be. Underdeveloped nations have yet to begin vaccinating, which also poses the risk of a repeat outbreak.
The IMF also published a forecast of global trade. Its volume is expected to grow by 6.5% this year against 8.5% in the previous period. For comparison, in 2020 the figures fell by 9.6%.
In addition, in emerging market countries, excluding China, total capital will decrease by 22%, and in developed countries – by 13%.

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China has published a forecast of economic development for the current year. According to the document, GDP growth is expected at 6%, which will be achieved by reforming the current management system.
In 2020, the country’s growth rate slowed to 2.3%, which was the worst indicator for 40 years. In the previous period, China’s GDP was about $16 trillion.
The first 3 months of 2020 were the least successful for the state, then the economy showed negative growth and GDP fell to 6.8%, which had not been seen since the revolution in 1976.
As for the budget deficit this year, it will be about 3.2%, which is slightly lower than previously observed. Inflation is expected to be 3.6% of GDP, and domestic price growth is expected to be about 3%. As for last year’s figures, inflation was 2.9%, a value that was not as serious as in the forecast that analysts published in 2020 – 3.5%.

The unemployment rate is expected to be around 5.5%, with the authorities planning to create more than 11 million new jobs. This figure is still high, and has remained virtually unchanged since last year. And the government regularly introduces measures to improve the situation, with 11.86 million urban and rural jobs added in 2021.
The PRC authorities emphasize an increase in the volume of exports and imports as an important direction for the country’s development. To this end, new rules will be introduced to regulate tariff policy. Representatives of medium and small businesses engaged in international trade can count on credit support from the government. Such initiatives will expand ways for small companies to develop and increase the volume of exports.
In 2020 the volume of trade in China had increased by 1.5%, in terms of money it amounted to 4.7 trillion dollars. Exports rose 3.6% to $2.6 trillion, while imports fell 1.1% to $2.1 trillion.
This year, China plans to increase its military budget by almost 7% to $209 billion. It should be noted that the country’s defense spending is growing regularly, ranking second in the world after the U.S. in terms of their volume. Increased investment in the military industry has caused concern and criticism in other countries. Chinese authorities say the growth of defense spending corresponds to the pace of the country’s economic development.
For 5 years, China has seen a decrease in taxes and fees, totaling 1.17 trillion dollars. This policy has given a good impetus to the development of local businesses.

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Last year was a real test for Russia’s global economy. The quarantine restrictions coincided with a decline in energy demand and crises in the oil market, which led to the collapse of the ruble. According to statistics from Rosstat, there was a 2.9% decrease in industrial production in 2020. However, according to experts, this figure was lower than forecasted in spring and summer.
In addition to the negative effects of the pandemic, the decline in demand for Russian energy was due to the warm winter of 2019/2020, when many importers of gas and coal purchased smaller amounts of raw materials from Russia than in previous periods. In addition, the country signed the OPEC+ agreement, which resulted in an 8.1% drop in Russian oil and gas production.
In December 2020, industrial output showed a decrease of 0.2% compared to the same period in 2019. At the same time, when comparing the results with November 2020, growth was observed at 10.5%, which was the highest level for the year.The industrial recovery began in early summer, gradually picking up to catch up with 2019. The results of December were positive, and the same dynamics persists this year. At the same time, for a long time the indicators of production and refining remained insufficiently high, and enterprises were working in deficit. Only a few months ago, the situation began to change in a positive direction.
This industry occupies a key share in the entire industrial complex, which means that it is extremely early to say that the segment has recovered. The first quarter of the current year showed the indicators of production of raw materials with minus values, but since the second quarter the processes of recovery were fixed. The main stimulus for the oil industry to recover from the crisis is an increase in demand at the global market. In this case, the impact of global processes and events in individual states is great.
As for the overview of the industrial production sectors, since 2020 the enterprises for the production of pharmaceuticals and medical materials and textile products have shown good dynamics. Chemical production and the food industry are performing well.
In addition to oil production and refining, the automotive industry, the production of non-metallic minerals, coal, gas, and metallurgy suffered. Moreover, the industrial sector was also affected by specific factors. For example, the sugar industry was in surplus production in 2019, which significantly reduced its value. However, consumption in the country increased in 2020, and producers decided to raise the cost of products, causing a stir in the market. Demand for buckwheat increased, but overall its production fell last year.

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Investment bank Saxo Bank published a forecast for the near future on the state of the dollar. According to the document, the U.S. trade deficit exceeded $68 billion. This figure was the second-largest in history. Analysts of corporation do not exclude that the value can increase in the future, this process is influenced by programs to stimulate the economy and a number of reforms that the government promises to carry out in the tax system.
According to Saxo Bank, at the moment there is a weakening of control by the democratic forces over the political processes in the United States. Such a situation could lead to the emergence of massive fiscal stimulus, while at the same time limiting the possibilities for the implementation of corporate tax reforms. This could play into the hands of the bear market and its dollar traders. In this case, if the U.S. currency shows a slight increase in investment returns, and emerging market money gains momentum to recover, then the bearish trend will allow winning good amounts.

Analysts note the effect on the economy and currency positions of the measures that were introduced to stabilize the situation after the pandemic. As a result the trade deficit has grown significantly and if the government does not revise the current policy, then the situation will continue to worsen. The fact is that now the main point is the purchase of imported manufactured goods, primarily from China. This allows the yuan to strengthen and the dollar to weaken. In 2020, PRC currencies have performed well, while U.S. money has shown fragility. The same situation may be repeated in the future, so the goal of the U.S. authorities is to compensate for capital outflows. One solution is to increase the inflow of funds, although this step has a drawback. It may lead to foreign trade imbalance, which will have a negative impact on the dollar and its position as a reliable asset.
Another threat to the U.S. currency is the digital yuan, which the Chinese authorities are actively introducing for trade transactions.
Investors and market participants still have high hopes for the U.S. Treasury, but confidence can be undermined by a number of factors. Among them are negative interest rates, as well as an increase in tangible assets and a decrease in investor activity.
The dollar retains its position as the world’s reserve currency, but the yuan intends to displace it, for which it is actively expanding the use of China’s digital currency. We should also not forget about the euro, which slowly but steadily shows its growth in the world market. In any case, the dollar has many risks, which, according to Saxo Bank, should be taken into account today.

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As more and more countries join the zero-emissions initiative, the development of green energy is being stimulated. And this is not only reflected in the emergence of new power plants and increased production of solar panels, the financial market is also joining the general trends. For example, over the past five years, the amount of green bonds issued has grown 20-fold, totaling $257 billion. It is projected to exceed $400 billion in the near future. If the capacity of this securities market was at $2,6 billion in 2012, then in 2020 it already was $800 billion.
Green bonds are used to raise funds for environmental projects. Most often this involves the development of the renewable energy segment, improving energy efficiency, or improving zero-emission transportation technologies.
Green bonds have a fixed yield, and their use is controlled by GBP standards, which are voluntary. These rules allow issuers to disclose information about the intended issuance of securities. This information makes it possible to assess how profitable an investment in a particular project is.
In April 2020, New Development Bank introduced a three-year coronavirus bond. The papers were listed on the Chinese stock exchange and denominated in yuan. In the bidding process, the bank received 5 billion yuan for the bonds, which were used to finance the health system in a number of provinces in China, which were most affected by the pandemic.The Russian market is just discovering the green bond segment. In 2017, the government approved a number of bills related to this area. A year later, the President of the Russian Federation announced the implementation of the environmental security strategy, which was the impetus for the use of green bonds. In 2019, for the first time in Russia these securities were issued, especially for them the Moscow Stock Exchange created a new sector characterizing sustainable development. A year later, the platform updated the standards and requirements for working with bonds.
However, the Russian market does not yet have a clear idea of what a green economy is and what projects and areas it may include. The problem is also the lack of a clear definition of which initiatives and programs belong to this segment. As a result, it is difficult to control what exactly the proceeds from the bonds go for – really green projects or areas that only appear to be green.
In the near future, the Russian government plans to revise the rules that apply to this type of bond. One of the main points will be mandatory reporting on the implementation of green projects.

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